Challenging Disability Through Outdoor Adventure

Positive Outlook for Kielder Weather

Doug on Kielder Water

Calvert Trust Kielder, respite care guest, Doug Paulley has created an amazing weather forecast for Kielder Water & Forest Park, he tells us how and why: 

"Over the past 11 years I've been visiting Calvert Trust Kielder for respite care breaks and the weather has affected all sorts.  I've had sunburn through to zip wiring in a blizzard; bitten to near-death by the midges; stayed through a two day power cut caused by a windstorm.  I've seen the reservoir as still as a mill-pond, sailed in exciting winds and got through more sets of wet clothes in downpours than I can shake a stick at.


Kielder is an interesting area to forecast; with its remote location and man-made landscape it presents unique challenges for weather forecasting.


I am a tech-head and as far as I know, I am the only person who has achieved mobile phone reception at the centre, having built a Heath Robinson portable mobile phone aerial. I have a degree in earth sciences and IT which I completed at the Open University whilst living in a care home.  I am now studying meteorology which has inspired me to create a weather forecasting system for Kielder Water & Forest Park.


I take data from aviation weather stations, weather buoys, balloon soundings and outputs from the Global Forecast System.This feeds into an interactive local atmospheric modelling system, which has been tailored for Kielder. The result is a detailed forecast lasting around 5-6 days.Pride inevitably comes before a fall, and I have no doubt whatsoever that my forecast will prove to be incorrect a lot of the time.  However, I hope that I can provide forecasts that may prove to be more accurate than some.


I've created this forecast for three reasons; firstly I hope it can provide a useful resource to organisations and people around Kielder.  Secondly I want to pay something back for the phenomenal times and the wonderful respite from my everyday life that I have experienced at Calvert Trust Kielder. And finally, it is an interesting project I really enjoy working on.


I currently live in a residential care home for disabled people.  Visiting Calvert Trust Kielder has changed my life massively for the better.  The positive, ‘can do’ atmosphere of the centre and its staff and volunteers, has been a revelation to me.  It's been exciting but reassuring, ground breaking but comfortable - an interesting dichotomy but a fabulous place that will remain forever in my head and in my heart."


Doug’s Weather Forecast is available to view on our home page.



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